I suspect there were a good many Texans, when that happened, who wished the Republic had stayed independent. Texas got in just in time to get caught up in all the sectional divisions and the animosity, and, of course, ended up as a participant in the US Civil War. I also worry that Sweden and Finland may have made the same mistake that the Republic of Texas did in joining the Union in 1845. Let’s not assume that this military is 10 feet tall and can sweep to the Atlantic, that’s not about to happen. On the other hand, if they looked at it soberly, given all the problems Russia has encountered just trying to subdue Ukraine, I think they would view the Russian threat to the rest of Europe with more perspective. I can understand why that would make European countries, especially, very nervous. TGC: I would say that Finland and Sweden wanting to join NATO constitutes an overreaction to what Russia did in Ukraine. What should we make of Finland and Sweden joining the alliance? JC: It seems like that mindset is now even across the Atlantic and has infected the worldview of nations that had previously been proudly neutral, and right now we’re seeing a real push by and for Finland and Sweden to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They seem to be the epitome of evil in the minds of, I would call them, Democratic crusaders in this country. In other words, you see more and more greater support for Taiwan, for example, on the left, even though that would require a pretty hardline military policy, a very risky policy.īut the intensity of the hatred of autocratic regimes, that from what used to be the anti-war left, seems much more directed at the likes of Putin and that right-wing nationalist regime. They will denounce that regime but they’re not prepared to sign on to actual hawkish US policies to resist it. In fact, it’s almost schizophrenic behavior on the part of a lot of people on the left. Do you have any insight as to who might be advising Joe Biden on these issues? JC: It seems like the people advising the US president, and perhaps the president himself, are not quite alive to the danger that you just outlined. Nothing certain, but the risk is very severe as far as I’m concerned. I don’t believe they want to escalate to the nuclear level at all.īut if it comes to a choice between defeat, national humiliation and, for Putin, personal humiliation, and rolling the dice and taking a chance by using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, I think he is likely to take that risk. Now, would they prefer to get a diplomatic settlement? Would they prefer to have this settled solely with conventional weapons? Absolutely. Ted Galen Carpenter: I believe that Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership regard Ukraine as a vital security interest for Russia therefore, defeat is not an option in their view. However, if it appeared that Ukraine actually might win the war, all bets are off.” What do you mean by “all bets are off”? James Carden: Ted, I want to start out by discussing something you wrote recently: “As long as Russian forces continue their advance, however difficult the slog, there’s little chance that Moscow will escalate matters. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements (2019), and The Ties That Blind: How the U.S.-Saudi Alliance Damages Liberty and Security (2018).īelow is a lightly edited version of our discussion. He is the author of more than 950 articles and policy studies and 12 books, including NATO: The Dangerous Dinosaur (2019), Gullible Superpower: U.S. To discuss the war in Ukraine and more, I spoke with Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and one of the foremost American critics of NATO expansion. Yet, nearly four months into the war, there seems to be little appetite in Washington to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sue for peace. By some estimates, Russia now controls 25% of Ukrainian territory – territory that is responsible for some 75% of Ukraine’s gross domestic product. Photo: Cato InstituteĪs the war in the Donbas grinds on and Ukrainian losses continue to mount, Russia seems to have gained the upper hand.
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